Visit Citebite Deep link provided by Citebite
Close this shade
Source:  http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/06/02/the-future-of-social-isnt-content-spewing-i-hope/

June 2, 2008

The Future Of Social Isn’t Content Spewing (I Hope)

Michael Arrington

42 comments »

A conversation broke out today on the future of social media.

Venture capitalist Fred Wilson says his vision for the future of social media is very simply every single human being posting their thoughts and experiences in any number of ways to the Internet.”

Putting aside the fact that most people just don’t want to publish online (and perhaps never will), I still think this vision is incredibly narrow.

Don’t get me wrong - I’m not arguing that online publishing isn’t interesting. Scott Karp’s recent rant that user generated content is “a new form of pollution” and extolling people to publish less, for example, is almost not worth responding to.

I don’t agree with Karp, who’s taking a side that also happens to promote the ideas of his new startup, but I’m not sure focusing on services that simply help people publish their life experiences is all that interesting either. Back in 2000 it was fairly hard to do things like write a blog, publish photos (don’t even think about videos back then), or share bookmarks. Today, all that stuff is easy, and in fact there are so many blogging platforms, social networks, bookmarking sites, photo/video sharing services, etc., that consumers are getting overwhelmed with choices that differ only in name, it seems. Hell, we even have a micro publishing platform that limits posts to a single word.

Now that there are services for virtually every kind of content that users might conceivably want to publish, we need open standards and businesses to emerge that help people link all their disconnected content together into a single online identity - the Centralized Me. This stuff is badly needed because our content is all over the place on the Internet. And it’s unlikely the big guys are going to do the right things for the community without significant pressure. This isn’t necessarily sexy stuff, but it’s important.

Let’s Make All This Online Content Go To Work For us

The future of social media, I hope, isn’t in more tools to help us spew more content. Instead, we need ideas and technology that can leverage all this available online content (including status and activity streams) to enhance real world social interactions.

The mobile device will be the center of this world. Forget using that device to simply publish content (although it is particularly suited to publish location data, photos and video content). Your mobile device should help you filter out people around you to bring mutually-interested people together. And it should also help you remember key information about the people you already know.

Perhaps that’s exactly what Fred meant when he wrote his vision, but it sure looks like he’s focused on simply recording the stuff of life and getting it onto the Internet. That seems like a commodity business to me. It’s enhancing (and in the process controlling to some extent) all the ways people interact with each other that’s the exciting stuff we’ll be seeing shortly. Remember, the word “social” is there for a reason. The Internet isn’t just about broadcasting and consuming, its about interaction.


Comments

RSS feed for comments on this post.

  1. Nicole Simon

    The problem is not the content spewing, it is the lack of tools around it. Usenet a decade ago has sophisticated filters (kill / watch / highlight) per person, topic and more if you liked, even some learning automatically.

    One person is deeply interested in topics another one is not, and their side, not mine, should do the filtering. Even more so when it comes to mobile.

    Well, maybe in 2010 some of those young startups have a look at what is already written down in code and adapt it to their tools *sigh*

  2. e fall

    Adocu is definitely the future of the web: “less is more” :)

  3. Jeff

    Michael, I agree completely. The future will be a mix of user generated content and tools for using that content. Fred’s investment in outside.in is backwards looking, I think, and I believe we’ve hit it right on the nose by creating http://www.wikimetro.org, a local social networking site lets users interact with other local users (like your neighbors, people in the same town, etc.)

  4. Jeff

    Michael, I agree completely. The future will be a mix of user generated content and tools for using that content. Fred’s investment in outside.in is backwards looking, I think, and I believe we’ve hit it right on the nose by creating http://www.wikimetro.org a local social networking site lets users interact with other local users (like your neighbors, people in the same town, etc.)

  5. Jesus H Christ

    I get where mike is coming from however it’s way too early to truly see a benefit to everyday life.

    service such as twitter and Facebook events are beginning to crossover and the line between online and “real life” has started to blur.

  6. Fred Grott

    I agree, as a mobile developer it is certainly harder to develop mobile tools than web tools. But, the commodity vs non-commodity debate goes somewhat beyond that in this space.

    People are moving towards the mobile handset being their main computing device. True, this trend is somewhat slower here in the US rather than Europe and Asia. However, never less that trend is now here knocking on the web 2.0 doors.

    Putting the filter tools such as friendFeed and etc on mobile will be first priority for those who want to beat Google and MS.

    Open standards such as the Jabber protocol to allow immediacy to the filtering and the resulting conversation will play their role and thus it will be the one who has the most user compelling features and gets viral traction.

    Its just a matter of which VCs are going to step up to the challenge and fund one our rebels to do this.

    Of course, I already analyzed and came up with ways to put a twitter core on top of both Jabber and Sun’s JXTA; this is challenge but not an impossible one.

  7. eve

    I have invented what I call “pico-blogging” - a service that allows you to publish your status in one bit.

    Right now, I am “1″.

  8. Lars Teigen

    I mostly agree with your analysis and I think you’re describing an important trend for how the next generation of successful online services will evolve.

    In many ways SecondBrain is moving in the same direction as you envision for leveraging UGC. Our goal is to help people work smarter with their online content by bringing everything together in personal content libraries, and allow users to organize, search and discover content.

  9. Thomas Murphy

    I agree that the internet is a place for people to interact and to show content they think others want to read about, but the internet is also full of bad content which really makes you wonder if you want to be exposed to it.
    I guess the bottom line is the majority of surfers want the internet to be a sociable place and open to all, not just a small group.

  10. Wayne Smallman

    The volume of UGC isn’t the problem, it’s the lack of proper semantics and aggregation filtering.

    Think of it this way: when we look at the sky, we see everything, whereas the astronomer can look at individual objects, or groups of objects.

    We need the tools to look at the whole of social media like an astronomer looks at the sky…

  11. ploop

    Totally agreed. While social media can, and often is both empowering and compelling there is a huge downside. Nearly everyone things that they are important and has interesting things to say. The fact is, 99% of us are simply ordinary. Interesting to our families sure but not to people worldwide.

  12. david cushman

    This takes the view that content is for broadcast. There ain’t many people only consuming on twitter, is there?
    One man’s spew is another man’s fine dining!
    I think what Fred was getting at was a future in which we share all share our metadata and find it ever easier to connect with people sharing our own purpose at any one time.

  13. Vassilis

    Let’s take this one step further and think about all this information that we share without even knowing. Or even more important: how about this information that we feel comfortable sharing today, not foreseeing the problems or limitations that we are creating to our personal or professional lives 5, 10 or 15 years from now.
    Millions of people using social media. Billions of tagged photos of young kids having fun; drinking; exposing themselves. It’s part of being a teenager, we’ve all been there. Actually, even people leading countries have been there. (Even if they didn’t inhale). But the accuracy of recording and organizing this information and keeping it stored for ever is a new phenomenon. I find it quite scary.

  14. Ann

    I think we’re getting to the point where people who want to use social networking just to use it, already are.

    Where it needs to go next is to give the rest of the population a reason to want to use it, and the tools with which to do it. A question I hear often is, “why would I want to use twitter?” These people don’t want to tell the world what they are having for lunch, don’t want to make new online friends that they’ve never met, and don’t want to spend yet more time in front of a computer screen.

    But when I’m in a bookstore and wondering if I should buy a certain book, and have a network of readers whose opinions I trust accessible at the push of a few buttons — that’s when twitter etc. will become useful. Those are the kinds of tools and uses that need to be developed.

  15. Kevin Marshall

    http://www.fubnub.com is being built to address some of this - pulling all your data from various sources back into your own control (on your blog or into your email)…it’s in the EARLY stages but check it out if you have time.

    One of the things I think is really interesting about the fubnub.com approach is that you can use Twitter, the fubnub website, or automatic scheduling to grab (and republish) your data…

  16. Benrik

    These are still early days. People are only just getting used to creating content for all to see. The challenge is to help them raise the bar and showcase their thoughts and experiences in a more creative way…

  17. Martin Edic

    this entire discussion leaves out a critical element: Reputation. Simply putting everyone’s thoughts out there is silly without some kind of value system. No one will care unless the person communicating has earned some kind of viability, AKA a positive, notorious or otherwise notable reputation. Ratings and rankings will create an environment that determines whether we get readership or not. Blatant self-promotion (as evidenced in several comments on this thread!) should get tagged as such by readers and the commenter rated accordingly just as obvious linkbait should get the same.
    Without a self-regulatory mechanism, social media will just turn into a lot of meaningless chatter- background noise to real life.

  18. Josh Sharp

    Both points of view are correct, I think.

    Our personal privacy is disappearing, but where people, even recently, used to be worried about this, I think we are _voluntarily_ giving up our privacy. We desperately want to connect with people, and to share every part of our lives. It’s definitely not a big leap to extrapolate from current trends (Twitter, blogging, social networks in general) that in 5 years we’ll be sharing nearly everything that we can share, whether explicitly (Twitter) or implicitly (location-aware devices, last.fm, etc.) We’re already halfway there, so surely you can’t argue with this.

    But you’re right, as the noise grows, there needs to be a way to filter that noise, to make it meaningful. Mobile context is going to play a big part, but you have to see that they’re two sides of the coin - just because people want to filter noise, doesn’t mean they won’t be “spewing” their own at the same time. I think it’s inevitable.

  19. Mike Robinson

    “Your mobile device should help you filter out people around you to bring mutually-interested people together.”

    This gave me a vision of the following scene:

    Guy: Look at that hot chick over there, I should go talk to her.
    *Pulls out phone, selects the woman’s mobile signal (as shown on a map of the local area) and searches for info about her. Puts phone away*
    Guy: On second thought, she doesn’t look that great when drunk.

    As to the post, I fully agree. We need new ways to filter and utilize the information that’s already being flung up onto the web. Refining that information and delivering it to the palm of your hand will change the way we think from twittering “I’m on fire!” to being told “stop, drop and roll!” Ok, maybe not the best example but it gets the point across (I hope) ;)

  20. The Observer

    If you follow the trends of technology evolution, even back in the early days of web browsers and enterprise software, there has always been an explosion of common new ideas and platforms. Startups identify a gap, fill it, get copied 5 times over, bigger players jump into the space (which validates the market), then comes the consolidation phase. Someone, either one of the bigger players or one of the startups whose managed to run their business efficiently enough to gain considerable momentum, agility, funding and progressive management, will come up with an integration layer, open standards, etc. The consolidation phase can sometimes take a different route through acquisition. Many times bigger players will consume the smaller guys only to drive an impenetrable wedge between technologies, then come up with their own standards giving developers and users fewer choices – but standardization nonetheless. Given our capitalistic nature this seems to occur more often.
    The typical phases appear to be:

    Identify the Gap >> Fill the Gap >> Marketing Development & Validation >> Consolidation >> Standards

    By no means is this an original discovery on my part. I’m sure there’s some business book sitting on Barnes & Noble shelves about this very thing. I just thought I’d share some observations over the past 10 years.

  21. Joe T

    The future of social is the Converged Me, or “Meme, Myself and Eyeballs” as I like to call it.

    The future of social is going viral at the speed of a photonic burst.

    But make sure you have your packet protectors strapped on nrrdboys and nrrdrrls!

    Suburban tweens? Make way for Gen I.

  22. TTT

    Great article Michael.

    The new web is absolutely about INTERACTION. That’s why I have been so amazed at the new interactive services like Ustream.tv, Qik.com, and Flixwagon. Whether you are interacting with the friends you know, or interacting with like minded individuals during a live Obama speech, INTERACTION is at the center.

    It seems to turn the web into a experience rather than just consuming it.

  23. Scott Karp

    @Mike,

    My “rant” was written with tongue firmly in cheek — Erick got the joke, surprised you didn’t: http://publishing2.com/2008/04.....ent-409826

    That said, I think we agree more than we disagree.

    Cheers,
    Scott

  24. Newsendorser

    please visit the site: http://www.newsendorser.com
    upload videos and invite friends to visit the site. your help means a lot!!! thank you!!!

  25. thecolor

    With projects like what Kevin Warwick, Professor of Cybernetics at the University of Reading, England and John P. Donoghue, a professor of neuroscience at Brown University work on, Fred Wilson may be spot on.

    Granted it may be a bit farther down the road for the typical human (average), everyday (for a lack of better description)… simple thinking will place everything you do into a database which can then be shared, and with the way our government is going, you may not have much of a choice with whom you can or cannot share your every moment with.

  26. Glenn Kelman

    Another very intelligent essay from you Mike, but here and elsewhere you seem overly centered on the cell phone. I spend more time using my computer than my cell phone, simply because of form factor and screen size.
    Regards, Glenn

  27. Alexander van Elsas

    Hi Mike,

    you must have been reading my mind ;-)

    I answered Fred in a post called The real value of social media = interaction.

    Let’s take Fred’s vision to the extreme. Let’s assume the entire world is expressing his thoughts and experiences on the web. Let’s also assume that that is all that happens, we express ourselves but no one is listening. I bet that the phenomenon would die out very quickly. It isn’t the expressing your thoughts what makes social media tick. That is only half of the equation. It is the “social” aspect of it that matters most. The ability to react, to agree or disagree, to build further (as I do now what Fred’s post), the sharing of experiences in order to learn from each other, to have fun, to argue or fight, in other words, it is interaction that matters.

    http://vanelsas.wordpress.com/.....teraction/

    Alexander

  28. jamie

    first useful - thought provoking article in a long time

    twitter at the bookstore? I don’t get that at all. If none of my friends are using twitter (which they aren’t) aside from seeing random notes and thoughts from people which sometimes are useful, what is the use of twitter? its sill an echeloned geek crowd using this app.

    @ ann - “people who are already using social are” - not. I quote arrington more than a few times: “what would you rather be the ceo of…google or microsoft?” arrington: “facebook!”

    I actually know, talk, touch and see people with my own eyes (social human interaction 1.0) who are getting on facebook every day to open a new account because its where the ‘mass’ has chosen to adopt / be. thats it. game over. no one is going to migrate - for awhile - in that mass - for a long time. until its like flipping channels, right now facebook owns the ’social’ space. the rest are mere applciations.

    twitter WAAAAY over rated.

  29. Jitendra

    Mike,

    Could not agree with you more…its about the user centered universal profile that works across the social web…kinda service that SezWho provides :-)

    and capturing content is indeed becoming a commodity.

    -Jitendra

  30. Peter

    not just ‘interaction’, but ‘meaningful interaction’ - that should be a goal.

  31. Marc Vermut

    @Jamie I think that Ann’s point is not where the user base is today, but a clear example of where the technology could be tomorrow that would support mass adoption and casual usage. Imagine if you could get immediate feedback from a network of trusted individuals (and potentially bots at some point) when seeking to make “experience goods” purchases.

  32. Mark Sigal

    I thought that Fred’s post was a bit too simplistic. Clearly, there is the perpetual need to have tools and services to get your digital self online, and as most of those services are decentralized, there is the increasing need for better tools to aggregate and centrally manage your online information.

    But the reality is that there are far more consumers than creators so a lot of the next wave is going to be about how you filter out the crap and filter in the good stuff, and how you connect and cultivate conversations with like minds in something richer than the one-dimensional “friending model.”

    Cheers,

    Mark

    Read - Why I Blog, it’s about Brand, not Bread
    http://thenetworkgarden.com/we.....g-its.html

  33. bigliu

    So Apple’s Internet strategy is focusing on mobile web using me.com? Wonder what innovative services they are going to offer.

  34. Ann

    @Marc Vermut — you’ve got it exactly, thanks for translating my thoughts.

    @Jamie — My twitter example was simply that: an example. Every day I deal with people who have never read a blog, or listened to a podcast. These people aren’t on facebook or twitter or any other service. They may use flickr because it’s useful to them, they can see a concrete reason (organize their digital photos). Until those types of concrete uses for social media are made evident to them, they are unlikely to adopt any of it.

    Ann

  35. great post

    !

  36. Garth Hall

    The web is already awash with ugc. but there are broad niches to be developed with high quality content - professional networking built on a ’social platform’.

    Our emphasis is on worldclass filmmakers & film industry professionals. FILMCOMMUNITY.COM is the Social Network for the Film Industry Worldwide.

    At the Cannes Film Festival they were calling FILMCOMMUNITY.COM ‘the Facebook for Film’ [ FB >> FC http://www.filmcommunity.com ]

  37. Joel Kehle

    Mike,

    I think you are missing a point. While Social Interaction is the goal of Social Media, there is a lot of “behind the scenes” information that will be generated to facilitate the interaction.

    Automated location broadcasting is an example of this. When the mobile device becomes the center of the world, I believe that every 60 seconds or so, everyone’s gps coordinates will be broadcast to the web. A collection of ancillary services will turn this data into information that will facilitate social interaction.

    For example from my gps coordinates, a “movie service” could figure out that I am watching Indiana Jones at the Arclight Theater in Hollywood and automatically twitter my “movie friends” shortly before the end of the film. After the movie I might have get a notice from a someone in Hollywood to have a drink at Beauty Bar to talk about the film.

    It’s the automated creation of “social data” and subsquent processing of that data into “social information” that will make the interaction with my friend possible.

    It’s not even that Karp’s postion is wrong - Saying that user generated content is pollution is akin to claiming that the a person’s nervous system should only send their brain sensory information that they aren’t conscious of. There is a lot of important information processing going on below the threshold of consciousness - It’s that Fred Wilson didn’t go far enough: we will each be continually producing social media data to make the creation of meaningful social interactions as likely and as easy as possible.

    Joel

  38. Larry Borsato

    Suddenly I see a new business idea for a feed aggregator that collects like information like so:

    Fred and Mike and Larry are taking about social media.

    Jim and Sue and Al and Jake are posting pictures to Flickr and/or Photobucket.

    257 of your friends are having dinner.

    7,538 people you have never met and don’t care about are talking about what they did today.

  39. Robert C. aka rc

    I would be suspect regarding anyone individual able to keep up with all the advance in social technology, hosting sites, social networks and and any technological advancement that would tie everything in together. Because just as soon as you sign on to one site that can not deliver on it’s promise another sight emerges that looks better but is just as useless.

    Instead of becoming connected we are becoming fractionalized and balkinzed.

    I myself would be happy with one search engine where I could actually find what I am looking for with out having to sift through numerous pages of non related crap.

    Ii would also like to an honest webwide ranking system that dosen’t rank the crap.

    What good does it do me to accept and invitation to use a site that hasn’t got the bugs worked out and even when it does what is is actual worth? That has a help system that renders one who has not got the hours to spend time searching a help forum that will not answer the question.

    And how hard can it be to come up with a real commenting system for blogs that doesn’t result in your blog doing flip flops and loading more slowly that even comcast can be held responsible for.

    Despite the hype of MySpace and Facebook what rile do they really play. And then add the numerous of the social networking sites and who can keep up.

    I am not a geek, however I know geeks who are totally frustrated with the current state of the internet.

    It is not that I haven’t tried to learn because I have. It is that I can not keep up.
    I can not play the game. I do not have 24/7 to experiment with programs that claim to meet my need but do neither.

    I can not count the programs I have tried and trashed abd have bookmarked to try to further trash.

    If somebody came up with an accurate T.V. guide for the internet with a ratings standard equal to Consumer reports I would scrap ever penny I have to buy at lest one share of stock.

    Last thought: The internet is danger of becoming to time consuming to be of any real value other than an e-mail provider and even then your privacy cab but be guaranteed. I know people returning to snail mail for any really sensitive communications.

    Their is much diversity in a rain forrest. but try and navigate through one.

  40. sh

    Whether we create, synthesize or consume content, this on-line content is clearly not “working for us” because we managed to create a real estate meltdown and capital crunch far exceeding the dotcom bubble of 2001. Interestingly enough the real estate bubble occurred concomitant to the rise of the UGC via social networking sites. The transactional sites eBay and Amazon are still the standard bearers for added-value, consumer networking. Call it “user generated commerce” - bookmarked, tagged, searchable and all for sale!

Leave a Reply

Continue the conversation in TechCrunch Forums

« Back to text comment
"); //-->