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The politics of Gen Sonthi's civilian role

The military high command will likely back up General Sonthi Boonyaratkalin's post-retirement political career in the interest of keeping Thaksin Shinawatra out of Thailand and down in Thai politics

By THITINAN PONGSUDHIRAK

As he enters mandatory retirement at the end of the month, outgoing army chief Sonthi Boonyaratkalin is in a quandary.

Given the appointment of Anupong Paochinda as his successor and the lukewarm responses of political parties gearing up for the general election in December, Gen Sonthi's transition from the military to civilian politics appears unclear.

With his retirement and Gen Anupong's elevation to the top of the army, Gen Sonthi's power base in the military is much weakened. Yet his support base among the political parties is hardly more reliable. The military's political party, Rak Chart (Nation-Loving), lies in tatters because its financial backer, who is a founder of the One-Two-Go budget airline, has been dealt a severe blow by the recent tragedy in Phuket, in which 89 passengers died after a fatal landing.

In limbo, Gen Sonthi is likely to first test the waters by positioning himself for a cabinet post under Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont's interim administration during its final months. Closer to the election, he is likely to cut a deal with one or more of the political parties to enter cabinet by appointment rather than having to run for an MP seat.

The growing probability of Gen Sonthi's appointment as both deputy prime minister and the now-vacant interior minister portfolio, which would allow him to supervise the general election, would increase his leverage vis-a-vis the contesting parties.

To his rare credit, Gen Sonthi has supervised a peaceful, albeit unstable and volatile, post-coup transition and charter drafting to the election.

The last coup in 1991-92 ended in ignominy and bloodshed in the streets when the chief coup-maker installed himself as prime minister after the election, in which a military-backed party won.

Successful putsches in the 1970s were accompanied by violence, whereas the two coup attempts in the 1980s failed.

Yet unlike his coup-making predecessors, Gen Sonthi has failed to completely extinguish the regime he intended to oust, as exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is gone but not forgotten. The People's Power party, the reincarnation of Mr Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai party, is poised to make a strong showing at the polls.

The likelihood of the PPP's solid number of MPs is the common ground on which Gen Sonthi and the existing and emerging political parties are likely to reach a bargain.

Gen Sonthi cannot afford a Thaksin comeback and exoneration, which the PPP has explicitly declared as its objectives.

As Gen Anupong and all junta members of the Council for National Security also do not want to risk a Thaksin retribution, the military high command will back up Gen Sonthi's post-retirement political career in the interest of keeping Mr Thaksin out of Thailand and down in Thai politics.

The established political parties, comprising the Democrat, Chart Thai and Mahachon, harbour the same objective of keeping Mr Thaksin at bay, whereas the re-aligning new parties that formerly thrived under Thai Rak Thai would be willing to trade in Mr Thaksin, who is their former boss, for cabinet portfolios and post-election power.

An arrangement thus appears in the offing.

With the army's backing, Gen Sonthi together with the political parties (excluding PPP) will try to ensure that the post-election coalition government confines the TRT proxy to an opposition role.

In return, Gen Sonthi would likely be appointed cabinet minister in charge of security affairs, possibly a dual role as deputy prime minister and defence minister.

A non-PM cabinet member is not required to be an MP.

At the same time, a more ambitious plan cannot be ruled out.

Gen Sonthi could comfortably run as an MP candidate and win election in a constituency dominated by military personnel, such as Lop Buri province where the Special Warfare Division is based.

Gen Sonthi is a former division commander and remains popular with voters there. This would mean that he intends to aim for the premiership.

However, public support for the coup has waned. The referendum results last month indicated substantial opposition to the military-backed charter and the TRT's and Mr Thaksin's resilient appeal. If Gen Sonthi bites the bullet and runs for MP with the intention of becoming PM, he will be running against a wall of critical public sentiment.

He is unlikely to do so because Gen Anupong, who was reportedly not Gen Sonthi's first choice as army chief, is more loyal to the palace than to him.

Without firm control of the army, Gen Sonthi's role in civilian politics in the run-up to the election and beyond is constrained. Without overwhelming support from the political parties, his closet ambition to become prime minister is also curtailed.

As a result, nabbing a cabinet post through a backroom deal is likely to be his best bet in keeping Mr Thaksin away and seeing his coup end up favourably to himself and his supporters.

The writer is Director of the Institute of Security and International Studies, Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University.

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