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Election 2008: Clinton 42% Giuliani 39% Ron Paul 8%
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found Hillary Clinton leading Rudy Giuliani by three percentage points in a four-way race that includes Ron Paul running as a Libertarian candidate and Ralph Nader representing the Green Party. The poll shows Clinton earning 42% of the vote while Giuliani attracts 39%. Ron Paul is the choice for 8%, Ralph Nader is preferred by 4% and 7% are not sure (see crosstabs).
The inclusion of two minor-party candidates has little impact on the gap between Clinton and Giuliani. Recent Rasmussen Reports polling shows Clinton leading Giuliani by an average of four percentage points in a two-way race. The gender gap is huge—Clinton leads by nineteen points among women while Giuliani leads by seventeen among men.
Perhaps because of his position on the War in Iraq, Paul attracts more support from Democrats than Republicans. He also earns 14% of the vote from unaffiliated voters. Paul is currently seeking the Republican Presidential Nomination and is running sixth behind Giuliani, Mitt Romney, John McCain, Fred Thompson, and Mike Huckabee.
The Rasmussen Reports election poll also found Clinton leading Giuliani by five percentage points if Michael Bloomberg runs as a third-party option. In that case, it’s Clinton 43% Giuliani 38% and Bloomberg 11%. An earlier Rasmussen Reports survey showed Clinton leading Giuliani by nine with Bloomberg as the third party option.
In both match-ups, unaffiliated voters split evenly between Clinton and Giuliani. Paul finds his strongest support among voters under 30. He attracts 13% of the vote from those youngest adults.
Typically, third-party candidates poll better early in the campaign and then see their support erode as Election Day draws near.
Clinton is currently the dominant frontrunner among those seeking the Democratic Presidential nomination. Her campaign has stumbled a bit in recent weeks making that race a tale of two narratives both of which happen to be true.
Ron Paul has stunned the political world with his fundraising capacity and has recently gained ground in national polling on the Republican race. Over the past week, he has consistently been in the 5% to 6% range among Republican Primary Voters nationwide. His cash resources could enable him to shake up the race in early voting states.
A recent Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that comedian Stephen Colbert attracted 13% support as a third-party candidate.
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
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