GLOBAL SEA RISE: A REDETERMINATION
- Bruce C. Douglas
- … show all 1 hide
Purchase on Springer.com
$39.95 / €34.95 / £29.95*
Rent the article at a discountRent now
* Final gross prices may vary according to local VAT.
It is well established that sea level trends obtained from tide gauge records shorter than about 50-60 years are corrupted by interdecadal sea level variation. However, only a fraction (<25%) of even the long records exhibit globally consistent trends, because of vertical crustal movements. The coherent trends are from tide gauges not at collisional plate boundaries, and not located in or near areas deeply ice-covered during the last glaciation. Douglas (1991), using ICE-3G values for the postglacial (PGR) rebound correction, found 21 usable records (minimum length 60 years, average 76) in 9 oceanographic groups that gave a mean trend for global sea level rise of 1.8 mm/yr ± 0.1 for the period 1880–1980. In that analysis, a significant inconsistency of PGR-corrected U.S. east coast trends was noted, but not resolved. Now, even after eliminating those trends, more (24) long records (minimum 60 years, average 83) are available, including series in the southern hemisphere not previously used. The mean trend of 9 groups made up of the newly-selected records is also 1.8 mm/yr ± 0.1 for global sea level rise over the last 100+ years. A somewhat smaller set of longer records in 8 groups (minimum 70 years, average 91) gives 1.9 mm/yr ± 0.1 for the mean trend. These values are about an order of magnitude larger than the average over the last few millennia. The recent (in historical terms) dramatic increase in the rate of global sea level rise has not been explained, and no acceleration during the last century has been detected. This situation requires additional investigation and confirmation. VLBI/GPS/absolute gravity measurements of crustal motions can be employed to correct many long (60+ years) tide gauge records not now usable because of vertical crustal movements, improving the geographic coverage of sea level trends. Direct altimetric satellite determinations of global sea level rise from satellites such as TOPEX/POSEIDON and its successors can provide an independent estimate in possibly a decade or so, and thereby ascertain whether or not there has been any recent change in the rate of global sea level rise.
- Baker, T.F.: 1993,'Absolute sea level measurements, climate change and vertical crustal movements', Global and Planetary Change8,145-149.
- Barnett, T.P.: 1984,'The estimation of "Global" sea level change: A problem of uniqueness', J.Geophys.Res.89(c5), 7980-7988.
- Bird, E.C.F.: 1993,Submerging Coasts, John Wiley and Sons.
- Born, G., Tapley, B., Ries, J., and Stewart, R.: 1986,'Accurate measurement of mean sea level changes by altimetric satellites', J.Geophys.Res.91,11775-11782.
- Carter, W.E., Aubrey, D.G., Baker, T., Boucher, C., LeProvost, C., Pugh, D., Peltier, W., Zumberge, M., Rapp, R., Schutz, B., Emery, K., and Enfield, D.: 1989,'Geodetic fixing of tide gauge bench marks', Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Technical Report WHOI-89-31.
- Chao, B.F.: 1991,'Man, water, and global sea level', EOS, Trans.Am.Geophys.Union 72(45), 492.
- Cheney, R., Miller, L., Agreen, R., Doyle, N., and Lillibridge, J.: 1994,'TOPEX/POSEIDON: The 2-cm solution', J.Geophys.Res.99(C12), 24555-24564.
- Church, J.A., Godfrey, J.S., Jacket, D.R., and MacDougal, T.J.: 1991,'A model of sea level rise caused by ocean thermal expansion', J.Climate4(4), 438-456.
- Davis, J.L. and Mitrovica, J.X.: 1996,Nature 379,331-333.
- Douglas, B.C., Agreen, R.W., and Sandwell, D.T.: 1984,'Observing global ocean circulation with SEASAT altimeter data', Marine Geodesy8(1-4), 67-83.
- Douglas, B.C.: 1991,'Global sea level rise', J.Geophys.Res.96(C4), 6981-6992.
- Douglas, B.C.: 1992,'Global sea level acceleration', J.Geophys.Res.97(C8), 12,699-12,706.
- Douglas, B.C.: 1995,'Global sea level change: Determination and interpretation', Revs.Geophys.(supp.), pp. 1425-1432.
- Eden, H.F. (ed.): 1990,Towards an Integrated system for Measuring Long Term Changes in Global Sea Level, Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Inc., Washington, D.C., May, 1990.
- Emery, K.O., and Aubrey, D.G.: 1991,Sea Levels, Land Levels, and Tide Gauges, Springer-Verlag.
- Flemming, N.C.: 1978,'Holocene eustatic changes and coastal tectonics in the northeast Mediter-ranean; implications for models of crustal consumption', Phil.Trans.Royal Soc.London 289(1362), 405-458.
- Flemming, N.C.: 1982,'Multiple regression analysis of earth movements and eustatic sea-level change in the United Kingdom in the last 9000 years', Proc.Geol.Assn.93(1), 113-125.
- Flemming, N.C. and Webb, C.O.: 1986,'Tectonic and eustatic coastal changes during the last 10,000 years derived from archeological data', Z.Geomorph.N.F. Suppl.-Bd. 62,1-29, Berlin.
- Fu, L.-L., Christensen, E., Yamarone, C.A., Lefebvre, M., Menard, Y., Dorrer, M., and Escudier, P.: 1994,'TOPEX/POSEIDON mission overview', J.Geophys.Res.99(24), 24,369-24,382.
- Gornitz, V.: 1994,'Sea level rise: A review of recent past and near-future trends', Earth Surface Processes and Trends, in press.
- Gornitz, V., Rozenzweig, C., and Hillel, D.: 1995,'Effects of anthropogenic intervention in the land hydrologic cycle on global sea level rise', private communication.
- Gornitz, V.: 1995b, 'A comparison of differences between recent and late holocene sea-level trends from eastern North America and other selected regions', J.Coastal Res.Special Issue 17,287-297.
- Groger, M. and Plag, H.-P.: 1993,'Estimations of a global sea level trend: Limitations from the structure of the PSMSL global sea level data set', Global and Planetary Change8,161-179.
- Hannah, J.: 1990,'Analysis of mean sea level data from New Zealand for the period 1899-1988', J.Geophys.Res.95(B8).
- Houghton, J.T., Jenkins, G.J., and Ephraums, J.J. (eds.): 1990,Climatic Change; the IPCC Scientific Assessment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England.
- Kearney, M.S. and Stevenson, J.C.: 1991,'Island land loss and marsh vertical accretion rate evidence for historical sea-level changes in Chesapeake Bay', J.Coastal Res.7(2), 403-415.
- Kearney, M.S.: 1996,'Sea level change during the last thousand years in Chesapeake Bay', J.Coastal Res.in press.
- Klopping, F., Peter, G., Robertson, D.S., Berstis, K.A., Moose, R.E., and Carter, W.E.: 1991,'Improve-ments in absolute gravity observations', J.Geophys.Res.96(b5), 8295-8303.
- Leatherman, S.P.: 1989,'Impact of accelerated sea level rise on beaches and coastal wetlands', in Global Climate Change Linkages, Elsevier, pp. 43-56.
- Leatherman, S.P.: 1991,'Modeling shore response to sea level rise on sedimentary coasts', Progress in Physical Geography 14,447-464.
- Leatherman, S. P.: 1992,'Coastal land loss in the Chesapeake Bay region: An historical analogy approach to global climate analysis and response', in J. Schmandt (ed.), The Regions and Global Warming: Impacts and Response Strategies, Oxford University Press, pp. 17-27.
- Mitrovica, J.X. and Davis, J.L.: 1995,'Present-day post-glacial sea level change far from the Late Pleistocene ice sheets: Implications for recent analyses of tide gauge records', Geophys.Res.Letters 22(18), 2529-2532.
- National Research Council (NRC): 1990,Report on Sea Level Change, National Academy Press, Washington, DC.
- Nerem, R.S.: 1995a, 'Global mean sea level variations from TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data', Science 268,708-710.
- Nerem, R.S., Rachlin, K.E., and Beckley, B.D.: 1995b, 'Long term sea level change observed by TOPEX/POSEIDON', EOS Trans.AGU(supp.).
- Nerem, R.S.: 1995c, 'Measuring global mean sea level variations using TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data', J.Geophys.Res.100,25,135-25,152.
- Nicholls, R.J. and Leatherman, S.P.: 1994,'Global sea-level rise', in K. Strzepek and J.B. Smith (eds.), As Climate Changes: Potential Impacts and Implications, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, in press.
- Peltier, W.R., and Tushingham, A.M.: 1989,'Global sea level rise and the greenhouse effect: Might they be connected?', Science 244(4906), 806-810.
- Pirazzoli, P.A.: 1993,'Global sea level changes and their measurement', Global Planet.Change8, 135-148.
- Shennan, I., and Woodworth, P.L.: 1992,'A comparison of late Holocene and twentieth-century sea-level trends from the UK and North Sea region', Geophys.J.Int.109(1), 96-105.
- Spencer, N.E. and Woodworth, P.L.: 1993,'Data holdings of the permanent service for mean sea level, Bidston, Birkenhead: Permanent service for mean sea level'.
- Tapley, B.D., Shum, C.K., Guman, M., Chen, J., Ries, J.C., and Chambers, D.P.: 1995,'Monitoring global sea level variations using satellite altimetry', EOS, Trans.Am.Geophys.Union 76(46), F159.
- Trupin, A. and Wahr, J.: 1990,'Spectroscopic analysis of global tide gauge sea level data', Geophys.J.Int.100,441-453.
- Tushingham, A.M. and Peltier, W.R.: 1991,'ICE-3G: Anewglobal model of late Pleistocene deglacia-tion based upon geophysical predictions of post glacial relative sea level change', J.Geophys.Res.96,4497-4523.
- Van Dam, T., Nerem, R.S., and Schenewerk, M.: 1995,'A geodetic network for monitoring sea level in the Chesapeake Bay (BAYONET)', EOS Trans.AGU(supp.).
- Varekamp, J.C., Thomas, E., and Van de Plassche, O.: 1992,'Relative sea level rise and climate change over the last 1500 years', Ter ra Nova4,293-304.
- Wagner, C.A. and Cheney, R.E.: 1992,'Global sea level change from satellite altimetry', J.Geophys.Res.97(C10), 15607-15615.
- Warrick, R.A., Le Provost, C., Meier, M.F., Oerlemans, J., and Woodworth, P.L. (eds.): 1995,Changes in Sea Level, Chapt. 7 of the Second Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Scientific Assessment.
- Warrick, R.A., Barrow, E.M., and Wigley, T.M.L. (eds): 1993,Climate and Sea Level Change:Observations, Projections, and Implications, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
- Woodworth, P.L.: 1990,'A search for accelerations in records of European mean sea level', Int.J.Climat.10,129-143.
- GLOBAL SEA RISE: A REDETERMINATION
Surveys in Geophysics
Volume 18, Issue 2-3 , pp 279-292
- Cover Date
- Print ISSN
- Online ISSN
- Kluwer Academic Publishers
- Additional Links
- Industry Sectors
- Bruce C. Douglas (1)
- Author Affiliations
- 1. Department of Geography, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, USA