ANALYST URGES CAUTION BEIJING — Shi Yinhong, a leading Korea-watcher who teaches international relations at People’s University in Beijing, said Friday he welcomed moves toward a concrete agreement but cautioned that Pyongyang’s record of "playing games" means all parties should prepare for disappointment. “It’s probable that there will be agreement in some form that North Korea will freeze part of its nuclear program in exchange for energy assistance, even implicitly, from the United States,” Shi said. “No-one can’t say this isn’t great. In the past three years of negotiations, we have never had such a concrete agreement. But I’m a little confused. How can you interpret North Koreas suddenly being willing to abandon its nuclear program? It’s almost incredible,” Shi said. He advised a cautious welcome to any agreement. “We should be prudent about not reading too much long-term significance into this. Is North Korea really set on a course of denuclearization? At least up to now, I dare not to believe. In the future, we may be disappointed again. North Korea plays such games again and again. The tragic story of the 1994 agreement could be repeated.” On the one hand, Pyongyang wants assistance and a better relationship with the United States, Shi argued, but at the same time the North Koreans’ immediate purpose is to eliminate the U.N. sanctions. Shi credits the recent intensification of bilateral talks between Washington and Pyongyang with improving the climate for agreement. The other four parties to the six-party talks have basically been sidelined, he said. “North Korea and the USA provide the basis to the other four sides of the talks, they can only raise their point of view at the end of this process. Their views are still important, but they have been less involved.” Shi warned that any agreement may only temporarily halt the North Korean nuclear program. Will it represent “a fundamental decision by North Korea to abandon nuclear bombs? I personally don’t believe it. The North Koreans always want to have their cake and eat it.” — Calum MacLeod in Beijing

Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill said the agreement outlined specific commitments for North Korea and would set up working groups to implement those goals to begin meeting in about a month. He declined to give other details.

ON DEADLINE: Latest reports from Beijing on the deal

"I'm encouraged by this that we were able to take a step forward on the denuclearization issue," Hill said.

The agreement could mark the first step toward disarmament in more than three years of inconclusive negotiations and deadlock. The process reached its lowest point in October when North Korea conducted its first nuclear test explosion.

The draft agreement came after 16 hours of what Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang called "extraordinarily intensive consultations" on the fifth day of talks.

"Some positive results have been achieved," Qin said, but added that the negotiators would have to meet again later Tuesday in Beijing.

Japan's chief envoy said it was "too early to tell" if his government was satisfied with the deal.

"I believe that countries have compromised somewhat toward an agreement," Kenichiro Sasae said, declining to give any specifics.

The current round of six-nation talks began Thursday on a promising note after the United States and North Korea signaled a willingness to compromise. But negotiations quickly became mired on the issue of how much energy aid the North would get in exchange for initial steps of disarmament.

Other delegates at the talks — which also include Russia and South Korea — had called North Korea's earlier demands for energy excessive.

South Korean and Japanese media reports gave varying accounts of how much energy North Korea was demanding, including up to 2 million kilowatts of electricity or 2 million tons of heavy fuel oil.

Under a 1994 U.S.-North Korea disarmament agreement, the North was to receive 500,000 tons of fuel oil a year before construction was completed of two nuclear reactors that would be able to generate 2 million kilowatts of electricity.

That deal fell apart in late 2002 when the U.S. accused the North of conducting a secret uranium enrichment program, sparking the latest nuclear crisis.

The apparent progress came after the U.S. envoy said the meetings that began Monday would be the last day for this round of talks, saying the possibility for a breakthrough was solely in North Korea's hands.

Enlarge By China Photos via Getty Images Christopher Hill, the chief negotiator for the United States, walks outside the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing.